Rational investing: how to tame emotions and get rid of prejudices?
Imagine the following situation: you have invested in shares and the market is down. The news is full of negative forecasts and everyone around you is panicking. Do you sell your shares to avoid further losses, or do you stay calm and stick to your investment plan? This is a typical dilemma faced by investors, and it clearly shows how big a role emotions play in investment decisions.
Traditional financial theory assumes that investors are rational and always make logical decisions that maximise their returns. Behavioural finance, however, challenges this assumption, arguing that people are inherently imperfect and subject to a variety of emotional and cognitive biases. These biases can lead to irrational decisions that harm investment performance.
In this article, we explore how emotions and cognitive biases influence our investment decisions. We look at common biases such as confirmation bias, herd instinct and fear of loss, and learn practical strategies to overcome them. The aim is to help you make more informed and rational investment decisions that lead to long-term financial success.
The human brain and decision-making
When we make investment decisions, we often think we are guided by logic and rationality. In reality, however, our choices are profoundly influenced by brain processes that have evolved over evolutionary time. Our brains are designed to act quickly and instinctively in response to threats and opportunities. This 'fight or flight' response was essential for our ancestors to survive, but in today's complex financial world it can lead to irrational decisions.
Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman in his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" ("Fast and slow thinking") introduced a two-system thinking model. System 1 is fast, intuitive and emotional. It is responsible for automatic reactions and quick decisions. System 2, on the other hand, is slow, analytical and rational. It requires conscious effort and analysis.
When investing, it is important to understand that we are often guided by System 1. We see a rapid price rise on the chart and feel a sense of euphoria that makes us impulsively buy. Or, conversely, during a market downturn, we panic and sell our shares, fearing further losses. These are emotional reactions that may not be in line with our long-term investment objectives.
The key to rational investing is to learn to activate System 2. This means making a conscious effort to control emotions, analyse information and make considered decisions. In the next section, we will take a closer look at common cognitive biases that hinder rational investing.
Known cognitive biases in investing
While we all like to believe that we are rational investors, the reality is often more complex. Our brains are full of cognitive biases - subconscious thought patterns that distort our perceptions and decision-making. These biases are vestiges of evolution that helped our ancestors survive, but in today's financial world they can lead to bad investment decisions.
Let's take a closer look at some common cognitive biases that can sabotage your investment portfolio:
- Confirmation Bias:
This bias leads us to seek and prefer information that confirms our existing beliefs. For example, if we believe that the price of a certain stock will go up, we tend to ignore negative information and focus only on positive news. This can lead to a situation where we make investment decisions on the basis of limited information and ignore potential risks.
- Herd Mentality:
Humans are social creatures and we like to belong to a group. The herding instinct makes us follow the behaviour of others, even if it is not rational. For example, if we see that everyone is buying a certain stock, we feel pressured to do the same for fear of missing out. This can lead to a 'bubble' in the market, where the share price rises artificially high until the bubble eventually bursts.
- Loss Aversion:
Fear of losing is a psychological phenomenon where the pain of losing is greater than the joy of winning. It makes us avoid risk and hold on to investments that are already losing money, even if it is rational to sell them. Fear of loss can prevent us from making profitable investments and lead to portfolio stagnation.
- Anchoring (Anchoring):
Anchoring is a bias where our judgements and decisions are too heavily influenced by the first piece of information we receive. For example, when we see a stock price for the first time, that price "anchors" in our memory and influences our future decisions about that stock, even if the information is no longer relevant.
- Overconfidence:
Overconfidence makes us believe that we are better investors than we really are. This can lead to excessive risk-taking and inadequate portfolio diversification.
- Availability Heuristic:
This bias makes us judge the likelihood of an event by how easily we remember it. For example, if we have recently read news about a market downturn, we tend to judge the probability of a market downturn as higher, even if it is not objectively justified.
- Representativeness Heuristic:
This bias leads us to draw conclusions based on similarities. For example, if a stock has risen rapidly in the past, we expect it to continue to rise in the future, even if there are no rational reasons for it to do so.
These are just a few examples of the cognitive biases that can influence our investment decisions. In the next section, we will discuss how to overcome these biases and make more rational choices.
How to overcome prejudices and make more rational decisions?
Now that we are aware of the existence of cognitive biases and their potential impact on our investment decisions, it is time to learn how to overcome these biases and make more rational choices. It's not always easy because these biases are deeply ingrained in our thinking, but conscious effort and the right strategies can help us improve our financial behaviour.
Here are some practical tips:
- Draw up a long-term investment plan:
One of the best ways to control emotions and avoid biases is to make a long-term investment plan and stick to it. This will help you focus on your financial goals and avoid impulsive decisions during short-term market fluctuations.
- Control your emotions:
Before you make an investment decision, pause and ask yourself whether your decision is rational or driven by fear or greed. If you are feeling emotionally unstable, it is better to postpone the decision.
- Use objective data and analysis:
Don't make investment decisions based on intuition or hearsay alone. Carefully study the company's financials, read analyst reports and consider different investment options.
- Diversified your portfolio:
Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Split your investments between different assets to reduce risk and protect yourself from market fluctuations.
- Seek advice from an experienced investor or mentor:
If you are new to investing, it is a good idea to seek advice from an experienced investor or mentor. They can share their experience and knowledge and help you avoid common mistakes.
- Practice rational thinking:
Rational thinking is a skill that can be developed. Read books on investing and behavioural finance, attend seminars and discuss your investment decisions with other investors.
- Use technology to help:
Today, there are a number of applications and web platformsto help you monitor and analyse your investments. These tools can help you make more rational decisions and avoid emotional pitfalls.
- Remember that you are not alone:
Every investor makes mistakes and occasionally falls victim to emotional biases. It's important to learn from your mistakes and constantly improve your investment strategy.
Finally, it is worth remembering that rational investing is a marathon, not a sprint. It requires patience, discipline and constant learning. But if you're willing to make the effort, you can tame your emotions, get rid of your prejudices and achieve your financial goals.
Summary
Rational investing is a journey that requires self-awareness, discipline and continuous learning. This article has given you an insight into how emotions and cognitive biases can influence your investment decisions. By being aware of these pitfalls and implementing strategies to overcome them, you can make more informed and rational choices.
Remember that investing is not just about analysing numbers and graphs. It's also an emotional journey where it's important to maintain calm and balance. By learning to tame your emotions and get rid of preconceptions, you can build a solid foundation for long-term financial success.